20 December 2010

Tron: Legacy Opens to Disappointing, but Not Disastrous $43 Million

Andre Dellamorte (who, for my money, is the only box office prognosticator that matters):
David Poland mentioned that all films that have opened to over $40 in December have done $200 Million domestically, so there is hope to keep alive, and this is Disney. The question is how much of a franchise picture is the film? Because it's quite possible that - regardless of the holidays - it drops 50% next weekend much like Narnia did. Disney's got $100 Million on lock for domestic at this point. Like a lot of pictures these days, worldwide is that number to satisfy. My bottom line is that I think the number isn't great because we've seen pictures open to this number and struggle to do much more than $100 or so.
I wrote earlier on Twitter that the film could drop 60% next weekend. But with the holidays that would be a disastrous drop. I think Disney can hope for something in the 30% - 40% range.

Tangled continues to perform well, even though it lost the majority of its 3D screens this weekend. But the ceiling is still $150 million.

UPDATE: The film received a "B+" CinemaScore from opening weekend audiences. That's not great and doesn't bode well for continued legs.